What to expect on November 4th

The race for President of the United States is closing in on the finish line. Barack Obama holds substantial leads in all recent national polls and has a big advantage in money raised. Because the Obama campaign has raised more money, it is even more difficult for McCain to make up ground in the polls. McCain is being forced to pick his battles around the country whereas Obama has the resources the go into any and all states he wants to (and he has done so with his 50 state strategy). As a result, McCain is also being forced to fight for traditionally red states that he should not have to (Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado among others). Because Obama's campaign is present in all of these states due to his cash and volunteer advantage, McCain has to spend what little he has fighting for states that he shouldn't have to fight so hard for.

Another serious issue has come up for the Republican Party: they are losing everything. Any Congressional races that involve Republicans are up for grabs. This fact has some party members beginning to question whether or not to continue funding the Presidential campaign that increasingly looks like a losing effort. In a recent Washington Post article, David Frum talks about how the money that is now being donated to the McCain campaign could be better spent on tight Congressional races that the Republicans have a chance at winning. He argues that Republicans must accept the reality of a Democratic White House and try to focus their efforts on Congressional races, on the grounds that "A beaten party needs a base from which to recover." He is right. Every dollar that Republicans send to the McCain campaign is a dollar that would be more useful in a tight congressional race somewhere in the country (for example Gordon Smith in Oregon or Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina).

As tough as it may be for Republicans to admit the truth, it is upon them. The President of the United States has been all but formally chosen. The choice now is between a 6 or 7 person Democratic advantage in the Senate, or a 10 or 11 person advantage.