A New Era in American Politics: President Obama

I wanted to wait some time after the election before writing my final post. The culmination of this historic election was emotionally charged for everyone involved, myself included. I believe it is best to assess an event bearing the magnitude of last November 4th after everything sinks in.

Up until election day we were religiously following polls, listening to the predictions of pundits and making predictions of our own. Everyone seemed to think they knew what would happen; and in a way many were right. Senator Obama won the electoral college quite handily: 365 to 173. His victory, along with all the Democratic Senate and Congressional race victories, exemplifies the clear advantage the Democratic Party had in the 2008 election season.

On the other hand, what should spark some interest is Obama's failure to win closer to the 15 point advantage that the Democratic Party enjoyed over the Republican Party. He won the popular vote by closer to 7 points, which leaves room for the issues of inexperience and race as factors in Obama's less than completely resounding victory.

But not to sell his clear victory short, Obama proved that the Electoral Map is evolving and Democrats now have more than one way to win (through Ohio and Florida). Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 were forced into relying on Florida and Ohio to carry them to victory along with the northeast and the west coasts. Neither previous Democratic nominee had plans for winning Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico. Obama in 2008 was not only able to make a move in the mountain west, but to steal away the solidly red states of Virginia and North Carolina from the GOP.

If I were to make a big assumption and say that Obama has the quietly effective Presidency he needs to have and wins reelection with roughly the same states backing him, we could see a considerable advantage for the Democratic Party with respect to the electoral college in future elections. Many red states are now purple; we will see if they stay that way.

It will also be interesting to see if the Democrats use their new President and near filibuster-proof power in Congress to take commanding control of the Political arena, or if they squander the power they now enjoy much like the current Bush administration did with 9/11 and ensuing events.

Stay tuned to Obama and his new administration. Remain a participant in American politics after the election by emailing and calling your Congressional Representatives, Senators and President. Don't think that your civic duty is over now that the election has ended; it has only just begun.

The Bush Administration: So Bad that it's Good?

George Bush continues to enjoy some of the worst approval ratings a President could ever experience. His administration's ability to squander the trust and approval of the public with warrant-less wiretapping, torture of prisoners, suspension of Habeas corpus, no-big contracts, unapproved wars and more is astounding. So astounding in fact, that it has spurred record numbers of citizens to register and exercise their civic duty to stop another Bush-like administration from ever coming to power. The Republicans did it in the primary when they voted for the candidate furthest from the good graces of the administration. Democrats are doing it like never before.

Democrats were upset with the 2000 election and believe they were cheated out of the Presidency. Because of the Iraq war and Bush's relatively low approval ratings in 2004, they assumed victory was inevitable and they did not turn out enough voters to beat Bush again. The Bush administration then proceeded to exacerbate their poor approval ratings with more big mistakes in the eyes of the public and may have finally awoken the disorganized, sleeping giant that is the Democratic Party.

Record numbers of voters have registered, are voting in advance, and most likely will vote on November 4th because they have seen what happens when they do nothing. 90% of Americans believe that our country is on the wrong track, signifying that many Republicans disapprove of their own party's direction. This is why John McCain, a more traditional republican candidate was nominated by the Republican party and why many republicans have switched over to the Democratic side.

Nearly all the experts (including those making odds in the gambling industry), feel that Barack Obama is the heavy favorite in this contest. We will find out tomorrow if their bets were well placed and the voters come out in the unprecedented droves many believe they will.

Obamamercial

Are voters getting more comfortable with the idea of Barack Obama as President?

Obama, especially in recent weeks, has been reaching out to the white working class and undecided voters. His volunteer forces are out in droves making calls and going door to persuade those who have yet to make up their mind. Obama has been spending a lot of money on advertisements that purposely assure voters of his competence. Just yesterday he purchased a 30 minute spot for a type of infomercial before what would be the last game of the world series. This 'infomercial' was a very reassuring medley of Obama's interactions with a variety of ordinary people, his family and one on one face time for him to explain his policies to America. It turns out that America was watching to the tune of 33.6 million viewers (14 million more than actually watched the game).

Barack's recent infomercial, among other ads and appearances, will help to secure his lead in the polls. Most undecided voters cite a lack of information on the candidates and their policies as their reason for indecision. Obama's infomercial addresses both of their concerns head on. The ad directly refutes claims floating in the media about his association with terrorists and his inexperience. It doesn't do so by arguing with words, but by visually humanizing Obama. His Obamamercial warms viewers up to him and his family as people; illustrating them as the happy, common American family they are. Watching Obama playing with his children and listening to him interact with regular folks on the campaign trail makes it much more difficult for any American to imagine him being the type of evil Marxist/Socialist/terrorist the McCain camp is painting him as.

A graph on the success of both candidates' campaigns reaching voters personally, either by phone or in person is shown below.


This graph illustrates Obama's clear advantage in contacting Americans in general as well as voters. The ability of his campaign to get to voters on a personal level is very likely another key to his lead in the polls. Being a new face on the political scene, Obama has had to build trust for his candidacy by getting to voters and convincing them of his competence as a future Commander in Chief.

By use of internet networking, phone calls, in-person volunteer efforts and most recently Obamamercials, Obama continues to saturate America with a positive image of himself and his family.

What to expect on November 4th

The race for President of the United States is closing in on the finish line. Barack Obama holds substantial leads in all recent national polls and has a big advantage in money raised. Because the Obama campaign has raised more money, it is even more difficult for McCain to make up ground in the polls. McCain is being forced to pick his battles around the country whereas Obama has the resources the go into any and all states he wants to (and he has done so with his 50 state strategy). As a result, McCain is also being forced to fight for traditionally red states that he should not have to (Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado among others). Because Obama's campaign is present in all of these states due to his cash and volunteer advantage, McCain has to spend what little he has fighting for states that he shouldn't have to fight so hard for.

Another serious issue has come up for the Republican Party: they are losing everything. Any Congressional races that involve Republicans are up for grabs. This fact has some party members beginning to question whether or not to continue funding the Presidential campaign that increasingly looks like a losing effort. In a recent Washington Post article, David Frum talks about how the money that is now being donated to the McCain campaign could be better spent on tight Congressional races that the Republicans have a chance at winning. He argues that Republicans must accept the reality of a Democratic White House and try to focus their efforts on Congressional races, on the grounds that "A beaten party needs a base from which to recover." He is right. Every dollar that Republicans send to the McCain campaign is a dollar that would be more useful in a tight congressional race somewhere in the country (for example Gordon Smith in Oregon or Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina).

As tough as it may be for Republicans to admit the truth, it is upon them. The President of the United States has been all but formally chosen. The choice now is between a 6 or 7 person Democratic advantage in the Senate, or a 10 or 11 person advantage.

GOP Conflagration

Much to the delight of destitute liberals that have amassed under the Bush administration for 8 long years, America is witnessing the ruination of the Republican Party.

In addition to and in part due to the failed dirty politics of Rove, moderate Republicans are beginning to defect from their party. Yesterday, Gordon Smith of Oregon became the fourth Republican senator to condemn the McCain robocalls insinuating Obama's link to terrorism. Widespread distaste for the recent neoconservative turn of the Republican Party is opening debate and conflict amongst the Republican ranks.

Although the base of the Republican party may be small town voters, the new found tendency toward small town politicians like Sarah Palin is wearing on the party elites. Conservative pundit George Will is voicing his distaste for the choice of an "unqualified" vice presidential candidate. Accomplished conservative writer David Brooks has articulated not only his disgust with the current Republican stance, but is also giving high praise to Obama on a consistent basis in his columns. And perhaps the most significant party defection came with Colin Powell's endorsement of Barack Obama on Meet the Press last Sunday. He pointed to the radically ultra-conservative turn the Republican Party has taken, Sarah Palin's lack of qualification and the divisive negative nature of McCain's campaign that "goes too far" as reasons for siding with Obama.

Such a mass crossing of party lines by traditional party loyalists is more significant than many seem to believe. This election has become about more than simply who will become the next President (as if that weren't enough). The nature of this election and the effects of the Republican campaign are beginning to do serious damage to the Republican Party itself. Not only does McCain seem likely to lose the upcoming election, but he looks to be alienating some of his Party's most iconic leaders. The continued choice of unqualified candidates (George W. Bush, Sarah Palin) that cater to the religious right and ignore traditional republican ideals-like balanced budgets and small government-is eating away at the Republican Party.
Recent defections due to increasingly dirty tactics open the possibility that the gun-toting, bible-thumping, gay-hating, racist population that the McCain camp has connected with so intimately this fall is all that will be left of the Republican Party come winter.

Obama's Success

The comparatively sober Democratic campaign is winning over the American public in spite of the religious implementation of previously effective (but currently unsuccessful) Rovian tactics from the Republican side.

The illegitimate but fear-invoking message of a telephone operated smear campaign against McCain in the 2000 South Carolina GOP primary led in part to McCain's surprisingly sound defeat. Character assaults like those peddled by the Swift Boaters against John Kerry played a key role in deciding the 2004 Presidential election. However, in 2008 these very same strategies, implemented in some cases by the exact same people as in the aforementioned elections, are simply not working.

Steve Schmidt, currently of the McCain camp, has tried to build a fire of scandal underneath Obama with same tactics Karl Rove used in 2000 and 2004 for Bush. They and the 527's working on their behalf have tested the issue of Reverend Wright, pushed Obama's connection with Bill Ayers, tried to tie Obama to voting fraud, and have even desperately purported that he is a closet Muslim terrorist. Contrary to the success of such scandalous accusations in the last two elections, the Obama camp has continued unfazed.

Why is it that Americans are putting less stock in the character assaults of 2008?
One simple possibility is that they trust Barack Obama (unlike past Democratic candidates-Kerry and Gore).

Obama has been under intense public scrutiny for a long time and has yet to crack under the pressure. He knows how to calmly rise above GOP assaults and he also knows, when necessary, how to respond to the assaults emphatically. He demonstrated his ability to stand tall most memorably at the 2008 Democratic National Convention with a Presidentially-strong response to Republican questioning of his patriotism.
America knows who Obama is and he has successfully held control of his reputation in the face of attempted slander.
(Arianna Huffington argues another possibility in The Internet and the Death of Rovian Politics).

Republican Smoke Screen

Republicans are trumpeting the allegations against ACORN to anyone that is willing to listen. McCain even gave the issue a plug in the final debate. What exactly is the issue with ACORN and are they responsible for voter fraud as McCain claims?


ACORN is a large grassroots organization that registers mainly low-income citizens to vote. In this election cycle ACORN did turn in some bad registration forms, however it is not likely that "voter-fraud" was the motive. There are many other reasons behind the submission of inaccurate registration forms. One reason is that some states require all voter registration forms to be turned in regardless of their accuracy, which is to be verified later by non-partisan state organizations. So even if someone were to leave a form incomplete or falsify their information, it is not for the ACORN employee who registered them to decide.

Given most state requirements, the most likely reason bad forms were submitted is that ACORN employees were attempting to meet a certain quota and embellished their results by throwing in fraudulent forms. Granted that this was wrong to do, these forms had no chance at actually giving any votes to a candidate. It was sure to be proven that these names and addresses were fake, they only served to help employees meet form quotas and thus get more money for their work. Check out ACORN's website for an in depth explanation from the source.

For every complaint the Republicans are making of ACORN, there are at least ten claims that Democrats could be hammering in response. Because low-income voters lean Democrat, Republicans can and do use many low-income based schemes to peel away voters from the Democratic base. One of the newest tactics being used this year in predominantly Democratic districts like Marion County, Indiana is refuting voter eligibility for those whose houses have been forclosed (by challenging their place of residence on their voter registration). Another dirty but sadly legal tactic is being used in predominantly black neighborhoods like Philadelphia's North and West sides. Flyers and rumers are being circulating anonymously that voters who have unpaid parking tickets will be arrested on site at polling facilities (in an attempt to discourage participation on November 4th by overwhelmingly Democratic black voters in Pennsylvania).

These voting fraud scandals are yet another testament to the superior organization and strategy of the GOP in relation to the Democrats. On an issue that they are most vulnerable on, the Republicans have turned the tables against the Democrats through a minor incidence that in this case it involves ACORN. The countless borderline illegal tactics that the Republicans are using all over the country are what Democrats need to publicize and complain about for the rest of October. The efforts to turn away and discourage Democratic voters from showing up on November 4th cannot be seen in poles but could have a serious effect on swing state election results. This is fair warning to all those glass-is-half-full liberals who think Obama will win in a landslide just becuase recent polls put him well in the lead. Polls are speculation, and no one is more aware of that fact than the Republican Party.

Final Debate Shows us True Colors

Finally we got a little excitement out of a Presidential debate. In their last appearance together the candidates engaged in heated discussion on negative ads, health care, economic plans, abortion, and the Supreme Court implications of the next Presidency. Both candidates took time (with Bob Schieffer's sage guidance) to highlight stark differences between their own plans and those of their opponent. McCain took this final opportunity to attack Obama directly and vehemently on many of his positions as well as his perceived associations (with Bill Ayers).

McCain had to make an attempt in this debate to somehow fluster Obama in order to reverse the critical lead his opponent has opened. He failed. Obama radiated confidence, poise, and respect in the face of McCain's crass, patronizing, myriad of assaults. Although McCain was on the attack and did make some good points, as Paul Begala said afterwards, "He looked like Grumpy McNasty again up there. 'Get off my lawn young man!' In addition, Obama responded with a coherent, civil answer to every allegation made by McCain . The American people concur once again that McCain came off as bitter and condescending while Obama came across as presidential and respectful.

The Republican nominee did all that he could in this debate, including an especially strong moment when he directly told Obama that he was not George Bush, but it clearly was not enough. McCain looked too much like the negative politics of the past, while Obama again showed the dignified qualities that the public seems to be yearning for and that have been missing in politics as of late. Michael Seitzman's blog in Huffington breaks down the contempt many are beginning to feel for McCain's political tactics and the corresponding admiration for how Obama has carried himself throughout these debates and this campaign.

Obama Poised to Lift America out of the Past

We are seeing record numbers of Democrats registering to vote, volunteering, and sending in their campaign donations this year. The unpopular record of the Bush administration is proving inescapable for the Republican Party in 2008 (in contrast with their 2004 victory against odds that favored Kerry and the Democratic Party).

Americans are showing their disdain for the Bush administration by seriously considering the removal of many incumbent Republican Senators and Representatives. Such incumbents are finding themselves touting their bipartisanship and any support they can muster from prominent Democrats. In addition to their desperate appeals to Democrats, Republicans are publicly disowning their own party (i.e. Senator Gordon Smith (R) of Oregon) just to have a chance at reelection. This goes to show how unsettled our country is with the Republican party.

But probably the most significant of all changes in public mindset is seen in the likelihood of electing a 47 year-old, first term U.S. senator of mixed race President of the United States (peculiar name and all). The fact that he beat Hillary Clinton, someone who many pundits predicted to be a shoe-in President and the Democratic nominee just about by default, goes to show the resonance Obama's message of change and particularly hope, had on the American people.

In his stirring speeches, ranging from the 2004 Convention to the 2008 Convention, he has articulated the plight of our country in a way that has Democrats, Independents and alienated Republicans showing their resounding approval. He has an uncanny ability, much like Bill Clinton before him, to shift our focus from the past and present to the future. No matter how terrible the circumstances, the ability to lift the spirits of the American people with the notion of hope is evident in Barack Obama.

In the face of the Reverend Wright scandal that threatened to ruin his bid at the White House by alienating white voters, Obama brought black and white Americans together with a speech on race and politics that will likely have a place in history next to those of Dr. King.

In the hardest of times Obama displays an undeniable confidence in America, its people, and its spirit that is contagious. We trust him to fix our health care, we trust him to end our seemingly endless war, we trust him to fix our ailing economy, and we trust him to bring our country together and move us forward.

In closing I would like to leave you with a clip of Donna Brazile speaking candidly at a forum for The New Yorker Magazine. The first few minutes are on a bit of a tangent, but starting at the 3:00 mark she taps into exactly what Obama has done to many Americans with relation to bringing our country together and moving us forward into the future.

Recent Developments

With two debate "victories" under his belt and the economy's failure being tied to the Republican Party, Obama has opened up a 14 percentage point advantage over McCain-according to the most recent CBS/New York Times poll. After working hard myself in voter registration and canvassing efforts, as well as phone banks, it is gratifying to take a step back and see the reflection of our efforts in the poles. This is proving to be one of the best political campaigns ever run from top to bottom (if not for surging ahead of John McCain in the poles then for upsetting Hillary Clinton in the primaries). With credit due to the record breaking online network of enthusiastic donors and volunteers and to the well executed policy proposals and speeches from Obama and his team of advisers, this campaign can almost taste victory.